資訊工業(yè)策進(jìn)會(huì)產(chǎn)業(yè)情報(bào)研究所(MIC)今舉辦「前瞻2012高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)十大趨勢(shì)」記者會(huì)，資策會(huì)MIC產(chǎn)業(yè)顧問(wèn)兼副主任洪春暉表示，今年全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)動(dòng)能趨緩，3C終端應(yīng)用需求疲弱是主因，預(yù)估明年全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)仍將維持緩步的成長(zhǎng)步調(diào)。
洪春暉表示，由于3C終端應(yīng)用需求疲弱，今年全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約3128.37億美元，較去年3003.15億美元僅成長(zhǎng)4.2%，到年底前，實(shí)際市場(chǎng)規(guī)模和年成長(zhǎng)率數(shù)字還會(huì)再向下調(diào)整。
洪春暉預(yù)估到2016年，全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)恐將長(zhǎng)期維持緩步成長(zhǎng)步調(diào)，預(yù)估年成長(zhǎng)率都維持在5%以下。
另一方面，由于上半年IC設(shè)計(jì)業(yè)成長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能不足，以及下半年動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)存取記憶體(DRAM)減產(chǎn)影響，洪春暉預(yù)估今年臺(tái)灣半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)值將出現(xiàn)負(fù)成長(zhǎng)，整體臺(tái)灣半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)值年成長(zhǎng)率為負(fù)10%。
資策會(huì)MIC預(yù)估，今年臺(tái)灣IC封測(cè)產(chǎn)值為新臺(tái)幣3452億元，年減1.85%；IC制造晶圓代工產(chǎn)值為5349億元，年減1.34%。 IC制造記憶體產(chǎn)值為1822億元，年減34.67%；IC設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)值為3984億元，年減10.1%。
不過(guò)洪春暉指出，排除記憶體產(chǎn)業(yè)后，明年臺(tái)灣半導(dǎo)體次領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展仍將朝正面發(fā)展。
WSTS drops 2012 chip market growth to 2.6%
Peter Clarke
11/29/2011 7:18 AM EST
WSTS now expects the worldwide semiconductor market to grow by just 1.3 percent in 2011 to $302 billion – in line with other forecasters – followed by 2.6 percent growth to $310 billion in 2012 and 5.8 percent growth in 2013 to take the chip market to $328 billion.
EE Times analysis puts the likely outcome for chip market growth in 2011 at between 0 and 2 percent.
The autumn 2011 WSTS forecast figures contrast with the more bullish forecast of 5.4 percent for 2011, 7.6 percent for 2012 and 5.4 percent for 2013 that WSTS made in its spring forecast published in June 2011.
As a result WSTS now thinks the 2013 global chip market will be 8 percent smaller than it was previously predicting
"In 2011, the semiconductor industry had to weather the slowdown of world economies from financial turmoil due to European debt concerns, clear declines of industrial and consumer confidence, as well as the supply chain disruptions by the earthquake disaster in
WSTS added that in 2011 an oversupply in DRAM has prompted a decline in memory revenue but this was partially offset by "healthy growth" in the microcontroller, sensors and discrete semiconductor sectors.
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